Renewal and Expansion

Renewals are won across the whole contract, but they are lost in the last 90 days when nobody started early. You run every renewal on a timeline worked back from the dates that actually bind (contract end, notice period, final invoice), make the value visible before price is discussed, and treat expansion as a separate, properly qualified deal. The standard: no renewal is a surprise to either side, no price change arrives without notice and a reason, and the renewal forecast says honestly which accounts are at risk.

When to use

• "Which renewals are coming up next quarter, and where are we on each?"
• "Handle the Acme renewal; it's in 90 days."
• "We're raising prices 8 percent; plan the renewal conversations."
• "Northgate's usage has doubled; is there an upsell?"
• "Nobody at Acme is replying about the renewal."

What you need

• Contracts or order forms: start and end dates, renewal terms (auto-renew or not), notice period, price-change clauses, payment terms. From the owner's documents (connected Google Drive) or the CRM. The contract wins over the CRM if they disagree.
• Billing data (Stripe if connected, or the owner): current price, invoices, payment issues.
• Usage, support and relationship information: the account plan if one exists; otherwise gather the snapshot, stakeholders and risks first.
• The owner's renewal policy: standard uplift, discount rules, who approves what, multi-year options.

Method

1. Build the renewal calendar. Use execute_code to list every contract ending in the next 6 months with: account, value, end date, notice deadline (end date minus notice period), auto-renew yes or no, owner, health. Sort by notice deadline, not end date. Schedule a weekly refresh with cronjob.
2. Work back from the binding date. The binding date is the earlier of the notice deadline and the last date you can paper the renewal before the next invoice goes out. A default timeline (start earlier for large or complex accounts):
   • About 120 days before: internal review of health, usage trend, open issues, stakeholder changes and price position. Fix open problems now.
   • About 90 days before: open the renewal conversation with the current decision-maker. Confirm who signs, whether the form must go through their procurement or e-signature system, and their timeline. The person who signed last time may have moved on.
   • 60 to 90 days before: value review with the customer (a QBR or a shorter call): outcomes against the goals they bought for.
   • About 60 days before: send the renewal quote or order form, so their internal process has time.
   • About 30 days before: signature checkpoint. If it will slip past the binding date, agree now what happens (a short extension, monthly terms, a new start date) and tell the customer in writing before they get an unexpected invoice.
3. Make value visible before price. Summarise in their numbers what changed since they bought, using the account plan or QBR data. If value is weak, deal with that first (onboarding help, fixes, a success plan) and tell the owner the renewal is at risk.
4. Size the renewal honestly. Base it on what they actually use and will need, not on what you hope to sell. A renewal is not the moment to force an upsell; keep expansion separate unless the customer raises it.
5. Price changes.
   • Check the contract allows the change and how much notice it requires.
   • Draft a notice with the new price, the effective date, the reason in plain terms, and what stays the same.
   • The owner approves the amount and the wording. Give at least the contractual notice; earlier is kinder.
   • Prepare answers to likely questions; see negotiation-prep for give-get options such as a multi-year price hold.
6. When the renewal stalls (no reply within 2 to 3 business days at a step, and at least 60 days before the binding date), work down this ladder, one step at a time:
   1. Ask other active users who now owns the renewal.
   2. Contact the person who signed the current contract.
   3. Send the order form to the account owner or the previous signer.
   4. Contact the finance or billing contact about what happens if nothing is signed (for example, moving to monthly terms at a different price), with dates and amounts.
   5. Tell all admins and active users the same, clearly and politely.
   6. If there is still no answer, the owner decides whether to close the renewal as lost or let the contract run its course. Each step is a draft for the owner's approval.
7. Forecast the renewals. Put each renewal in one category, with evidence:
   • Committed: a verbal or written yes from the signer.
   • Likely: healthy, engaged, no open issues.
   • At risk: any serious risk signal.
   • Churning: they said so. Report gross and net revenue retention for the same cohort and period (formulas in references/renewal-playbook.md):
   • GRR = (starting recurring revenue minus churn minus downgrades) / starting recurring revenue.
   • NRR = (starting recurring revenue minus churn minus downgrades plus expansion) / starting recurring revenue.
8. Spot expansion. Signals, each with evidence and a date:
   • usage approaching plan limits;
   • new teams or sites starting to use the product;
   • hiring in the roles that use it;
   • a new initiative that matches a whitespace cell in the account plan;
   • the champion promoted, or new funding;
   • the customer asking about other products.
9. Qualify expansion like a new deal. A new team often means a new budget holder and a new decision process. Confirm the pain, the metric, who pays and how they decide before quoting. Use the account's champion for introductions; never go around them.
10. Close the loop. Record the outcome, the new contract dates (checked against billing), the reason for any churn or downgrade, and the next renewal's dates. Feed lessons into the account plan.

Worked example: retention for one cohort

Customers active on 1 October last year: recurring revenue 500,000. Over the following 12 months, within that same group: churned 40,000; downgrades 15,000; expansion 75,000. New customers won during the year are excluded.

• GRR = (500,000 - 40,000 - 15,000) / 500,000 = 89 percent.
• NRR = (500,000 - 40,000 - 15,000 + 75,000) / 500,000 = 104 percent. Report it as "trailing 12 months to 30 September, cohort of customers active on 1 October", and list the three largest churns and expansions behind the numbers.

Output

• The renewal calendar (a table, refreshed weekly) with the next action per account.
• For each renewal in the next 90 days: a one-page renewal plan using references/renewal-playbook.md, the value summary, and draft messages for approval.
• The renewal forecast with categories, GRR and NRR, and the at-risk list with reasons.
• Expansion opportunities with signal, evidence, buyer and next step.

Checks before you finish

• Notice deadlines and end dates come from the contract, and mismatches with the CRM or billing are flagged and resolved.
• No price, discount or term is shown to the customer before the owner approves it.
• Every at-risk renewal has a named reason and a mitigation with an owner and a date.
• Retention formulas use one cohort and one period, stated.
• Expansion opportunities are qualified, not wishful.

Pitfalls

• Starting at 30 days. Procurement, security reviews and budget approvals often take longer than that.
• Assuming last year's contact still decides. People move. Re-confirm the signer every time.
• Surprise price rises. They turn a renewal into a churn conversation. Give notice, a reason, and options.
• Upselling an unhappy customer. Fix value first; expansion follows success.
• Calling every renewal "likely". An honest at-risk list early is worth more than a clean forecast that breaks.
• Ignoring auto-renewal rules. Some jurisdictions regulate automatic renewal notices for consumers and small businesses. If the owner sells to them, check the rules with web_search and tell the owner.

See also: account-plan, qbr-deck, negotiation-prep.